Iran’s foolish war threats (they’re gonna’ lose)
So I read this morning at http://news.yahoo.com/iran-threatens-action-u-carrier-returns-irna-082124042.html that I ran is threatening a war of sorts with the United States. Can anything be more absurd? I mean really, Iran imports a huge amount of its food – through a few ports – easily blocked if not destroyed by the US. Their air force is pitifully out of date – and can be shot out of the skies in a few hours – if they even get into the air. Their electric grids can be shut down, plunging that nation into the dark. They have minorities, like the Baluchis in the Southeast and the Kurds in the Northwest who would be only too happy to wreck havoc within the nation. Then too there’s Israel which would be more than willing to join the fray.
We could bomb Iran round the clock for weeks and never put a soldier on the ground. We could stop their oil exports. We could seize and freeze their assets outside of Iran, and probably sitting in Europe, which might have the gumption to do the work required to simply stop Iran from spending a dime.
In the long history of war those nations without the wherewithal to feed themselves during the conflict have lost. In this same history those nations with the wherewithal to bring the war to the home front while the belligerent nation has no such ability those nations have lost big time.
Meanwhile, there are millions of Iranians who are fed up with their own government, ready at a moment’s notice to go to the streets, as has been amply proved in the past two or three years, and the students are sure to want to riot rather than go to some front which doesn’t exist. For there would be no ground war, and their needn’t be. We could simply do what we did to Serbia – bomb them from 35,000 feet. We could wreck so much damage on the military pipsqueak of their nation that they wouldn’t know what hit them. We could remove their command and control centers, no matter how deeply buried, for things that are buried can be taken out with both bunker buster bombs and simply destroying the entrances to the underground warrens and the air vents required to keep them functioning.
Is Iran crazy enough to attack a US aircraft carrier? Probably. Would the president of this nation sit back and let it happen? Doubtful. Even a Nobel Prize winning wimp (though he is not such a wimp when it comes to sending in the drones, actually,) would be constrained by our own political reality to wreck that havoc as we are capable of doing. We could sink the Iranian navy in a fortnight – for how many ships could it have, a 100, 200? And they mostly being aging destroyers and coastal cruisers
Not to mention that the Iraqis might well want to join in the fray just to have some fun. And too the Saudis and even the Indians and Pakistanis might send in some forces. England, France, and other Europeans would almost certainly join in to. Is Iran ready to take on the entire world?
China is already stopping the buying of Iranian oil, cutting into the flow of money to the despised and lunatic regime. And I wonder for how long the saner elements of the Iranian polity would want to see their army, air force and navy destroyed. And what of the political forces there sitting in the dark? Does one think that they will all commit a suicide of sorts, and watch their nation be destroyed so that some mullahs, ayatollahs and a lunatic president can reap some ill-fated glory for the 12th Imam? No, I think not. The forces within Iran will step up to the plate and take out the offending parties.
Meanwhile, the people, dark, cold or hot (depending on the season in which the war starts,) and driven to hunger and the already lackluster economy suffering under years of strange mismanagement will rise up in righteous indignation? Don’t think so? Ah, au contraire, for already the Iranian people are heading to the banks, running on them, to demand US dollars and Euros – and getting rid of their already inflated mush of a currency.
Oh, Iran, don’t be so stupid as to rattle a saber which you are not strong enough to pick up and wield against an “enemy” you can’t see or strike at. And if Iran, by some miracle, should use their one or two subs or ocean going vessels to attack say Baltimore, Miami or New York, the people of this nation will simply demand the utter destruction of Iran. Oh, ayatollahs, can you really be that crazy?
And as for Germany, Russia, Norway, China and the other wimpy nations of the world, who will of course accuse the United States of Lord knows what in the conflagration to come from such a stupid thing as attacking a US carrier, they too will be shunted to the sidelines in sputtering and spewing out their nonsense, and perhaps the “non-aligned” and the United Nations will pass a resolution to resounding majority votes condemning the United States, ergo sealing their own doom as a united organization, for the people of this nation are not going to listen to a bunch of nuts and be cowed by some third rate near third world dictatorship.
And what of Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Well, I dare say, besides the already well advanced efforts at disruption that the Israelis or someone did with the Stuxnet virus on their computers, will be ramped up to simply bomb any and every conceivable and imagined nuclear facility, with no mercy, not just some Clintonesque pinpricks, or Carterian waffling, but will simply give the hold heave ho to every potential weapon in the vast arsenal at the ready to bring down the arrant and errant regime in flames.
And the Iranian people, long suffering under the yoke of Religious Tyranny will not long join their own government in their own destruction, but would rise up in revolution and a slaughtering of those who brought the misery upon them.
No, I have some faith that Iran can be dealt with so swiftly that little will be left military-wise and little in the way of danger to the region, and Iran brought back into the community of nations.
Perhaps they are emboldened by their memories of the Embassy thing back in the 1970s – ah, but seizing an embassy is easy – taking on the USA in a war is quite another matter. Ask Serbia, ask Iraq, ask anyone. The days of Vietnam era hand wringing is gone. And the might of our military is so huge – larger than the rest of the world combined – that the 70 million Iranians won’t know what hit them. And if they survive for more than a month of constant pounding I’d be surprised.
Does the current administration have the chutzpah to do the deed? Actually, I think so. For Mr. Obama could use every bit of help to get elected that he can find. And a good thrashing of a long time enemy would be just the campaign would want. Not to mention that American presidents in wartime always get a little boost by those who put aside domestic concerns for the sake of national defense – which well they perhaps should. And Mr. Obama has shown no unwillingness to send in the drones, special ops and cruise missiles to take out our enemies in nations with which we are at ostensible peace, like Yemen and Oman and Pakistan. I dare say, he’d almost relish the opportunity to declare to the nation “We start the bombing in five minutes.” And the Republicans of the House, and those in the Senate, would be loathe to stop him or complain – especially if Iran shoots so much as a spit ball at the US Carl Stennis, which is the carrier which just left the Persian Gulf and the Iranians declared is not welcome back.
Perhaps the Iranians are too fixated upon the world name for the Persian Gulf, a name long settled, but which are in fact international waters. Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, which are on the Gulf waters there, would be more than happy to invite the Stennis and the Reagan and any other US carrier in the Indian Ocean to come on in and enjoy the sites. Oh, Iran, don’t be stupid. Now’s not the time to be wagging fingers at us in a vain attempt to conquer us and throw us out of a region we’ve been in since Jefferson was president. So I’m just not worried – for even if the worse case scenario happens and the Iranians attack our ships – that would be an open Act of War, and the US Congress, Democrats included, would be well within our rights to declare war – and not just some police action, or some tit-for-tat “Well, we took out a little thing” in even handed equal retaliation – but no, I could well imagine the Congress voting a War Resolution and demanding the Commander in Chief to command the end of the current Iranian regime and bring about a little happiness for those people there and peace within the region like hasn’t been seen since the misbegotten Medievalists took over the place some 30 years ago.
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